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Trading & Investing #1305520
12/01/2012 10:47
12/01/2012 10:47

R
Redline
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Redline
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There was a thread on 'Making Money' a while back, but the thread dissolved as the opening op was banned from fccuk shocked ...

I have a valid interest in the stock markets myself, and over the past few years have been heavily investing in many areas with mixed success rolleyes ... So I'm hoping that 2012 is going to be a better year!

Therefore I thought it was a good time at the start of 2012 to see what other fccuk members situation is on the current climate & what there thoughts are on the current economy?

Myself I'll open by saying from what I've learnt that 2012 could be a bearish / sideways year for many markets, that's despite the bullish start to the year for many markets!
Are there any keen traders out there? 2011 was very volatile in many ways, how did everyone else find the markets?

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1306953
16/01/2012 19:53
16/01/2012 19:53

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Enforcer
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Enforcer
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I usually have some sort of involvement with the LSE, although results have been very disappointing in the past year. You can divide my activities into two categories:

1. The FTSE 100, where I always end up in profit. It's simply a matter of getting in when you think the prices are in a trough, and then waiting for them to come out of it. It's not an exact science, and you can find yourself in debt for a long time. I made about fifteen percent over the year.

2. Other stocks: I stupidly went with the euphoria with BKIR, and lost all the money. i still have most of the shares, but they are worth next to nothing. I won't be doing that again.

So my experience is that if you stick to (1) you are likely to make some sort of gains over the year. But you need a lot of patience to wait for entry and exit points. Don't buy until everyone else is panicking.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1307010
16/01/2012 22:12
16/01/2012 22:12

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Jonny
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Jonny
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Used to do a bit of dealing 10 years ago but nothing recently. Did just buy some Rockhopper shares last week. Have a look at the news today rotate Let's see what happens.

I think there are certain sectors which are going to do very well in the medium term. Research is need I think...

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1307061
16/01/2012 23:53
16/01/2012 23:53

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Enforcer
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This is the inevitable old chestnut. Does research do any good?

Answer: No, because other investors have already done it, at great expense, so all known factors already 'priced in'.

This is not necessarily a universal truth, but it is enough to put me off even trying. I just assume there will be ups and downs, gauge the general economic sentiment ( fairly flat at the moment) and wait for a trough.

This chart shows you the limit of my analysis:

click to enlarge

100-day moving average, 10-day moving average, and spot price. A trough occurs when the spot price drops below the other two. Sorry, you can't open it, because it requires sign-in.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308016
19/01/2012 11:02
19/01/2012 11:02

R
Redline
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Redline
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Originally Posted By: Enforcer

100-day moving average, 10-day moving average, and spot price. A trough occurs when the spot price drops below the other two. Sorry, you can't open it, because it requires sign-in.


Are you using weekly or daily charts? Not able to see your screen shot.
Out of interest have you a trade running on the FTSE100 at the moment?
I can see your method for entry, but you don't stay how you exit?

click to enlarge

I've attached a weekly chart with your 100/10 EMA's but as I can see your entry points if you used through 2008 could have lost you quite a lump of money?

In May 2010, and Aug 2011 these were positive depending on your exit method?

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308023
19/01/2012 11:33
19/01/2012 11:33

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Enforcer
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Daily charts, or even intraday charts. I just buy and sell whenever the current price is right.

Yes, if you use my method you can get locked in for extended periods. That happened over 2007-8, but I stayed in and eventually got back into profit. I don't believe in stop-losses in the FTSE 100, as they just chip away at your capital to no advantage. Stop-losses and over-trading are your worst enemies.

I buy and sell on pragmatic observations. If the price dips significantly below the averages, I buy, if it rises significantly above the averages, I sell. The background indicator is just the general economic outlook at the time. Apart from that, it's just a matter of waiting.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308037
19/01/2012 12:09
19/01/2012 12:09

R
Redline
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Redline
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I can see your in trades for a long length of time!
For your style of trading, you could try using the 8/21 EMA as on the attached image?

click to enlarge

As you can see I've marked where the 8/21 EMA cross, Green/Orange for Buy/Sell & as you can see on the daily chart over time this has good results? Ok so your not getting the full extent of the peaks & troughs, but for long term trading it works?

I don't tend to trade the FTSE100 direct, I analyses the current state of the FTSE then trade on the shares within the FTSE, I'm looking for 5% movement, then I'm out of the trade wink

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308272
19/01/2012 22:09
19/01/2012 22:09

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jonnybgt1759
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Redline - I have been doing this for a few months now. With mixed results i have tried many different styles. I would consider myself as day trader scalper in and out within mins or seconds using the 1 min chart.

I generally trade the ftse 100 before the S&P opens.

I could do with a little advice my current system combines MACD 3,10,14 and ADX period 6. What i look for the ADX decides to go long or short , the macd decides when to buy or sell when it crosses the line. My stop is 4 pips but is really 3 as your buying price has 1 pip cost. My limit is 2 pips.

I have tried to add stochastics into the scene but they dont work to well.

Is there any advice you could give me or any alterations you would do to my system?

Thanks.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308322
19/01/2012 23:37
19/01/2012 23:37

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Enforcer
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Originally Posted By: Redline
I can see your in trades for a long length of time!
For your style of trading, you could try using the 8/21 EMA as on the attached image?

click to enlarge

As you can see I've marked where the 8/21 EMA cross, Green/Orange for Buy/Sell & as you can see on the daily chart over time this has good results? Ok so your not getting the full extent of the peaks & troughs, but for long term trading it works?

I don't tend to trade the FTSE100 direct, I analyses the current state of the FTSE then trade on the shares within the FTSE, I'm looking for 5% movement, then I'm out of the trade wink


Yes, that seems fine. There is no exact science to all of this. If you select your entry point fairly wisely and then go for 5% that works. Sometimes I cash in after 30 minutes, sometimes after two years. It all works in the end.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308323
19/01/2012 23:39
19/01/2012 23:39

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Originally Posted By: jonnybgt1759
Redline - I have been doing this for a few months now. With mixed results i have tried many different styles. I would consider myself as day trader scalper in and out within mins or seconds using the 1 min chart.

I generally trade the ftse 100 before the S&P opens.

I could do with a little advice my current system combines MACD 3,10,14 and ADX period 6. What i look for the ADX decides to go long or short , the macd decides when to buy or sell when it crosses the line. My stop is 4 pips but is really 3 as your buying price has 1 pip cost. My limit is 2 pips.

I have tried to add stochastics into the scene but they dont work to well.

Is there any advice you could give me or any alterations you would do to my system?

Thanks.


If you use stops you will lose money, unless they are just trailing stops once you are in profit.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308359
20/01/2012 09:15
20/01/2012 09:15

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tim42
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tim42
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I'm hardly an active investor wink , but I stuck a little cash away in 2 investment trusts ten years ago. With reinvested dividends and capital growth the value has more than doubled.... not too bad, and better than a deposit account smile .

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308365
20/01/2012 09:42
20/01/2012 09:42

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Enforcer
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Enforcer
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Yes, that's a sensible approach - too sensible for some!

So-called 'systems' that are supposed to make you money are generally compared with your method. If they do better than that they are said to work.

No-one has actually come up with evidence that any such system works. They often seem to work, but that turns out to be just a stroke of luck.

Why don't they work?

Basically, because the known facts about a stock are already built in to the price. Investment companies do all the spade work on this, so there is nothing left for us to do. So from that position, any future movement is more or less unpredictable.

If you add to that the losses incurred through triggered stop-losses, and also trading fees, you are on to a loser. You will sometimes win, of course, but on average you will lose, so in that sense the method doesn't work.

Well, doesn't work, except that there is just one 'strategy' that does: The one I use (obviously, otherwise I wouldn't be using it). It relies on market sentiment, really, which goes through panic / euphoria cycles. Get in when you see the market is panicking. Get out when everyone is piling in (or to be more accurate, has piled in) on renewed confidence.


Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308369
20/01/2012 10:14
20/01/2012 10:14

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Redline
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Redline
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jonnybgt1759 - Firstly I'm not a processional trader & only do as a hoby when I can, but I have been studying heavy for the past few years?
I do have a good friend who does it professionally to the point where he has now retired & lives from his day trading!

Firstly I would say that there is no exact method or system to work to? as mentioned many systems are available to buy but these are very flawed in many ways & will give you various success rates? Even processional traders are happy with around a 30% success rate? Although my friend is not happy with anything less than 80% laugh ..

All indicators are 'lagging' indicators so you wont' find a magic one to look forward for you laugh ?
Using the MACD/ADX is working for you, so why not just stick with that & look for ways to tweak your setup?
I would say that you are working very hard for 2 pips?
I'm guessing your going in heavy at £10+ a pip?

I look at the daily charts, looking for bullish / bearish reversals, Set my stop / limit at the previous days high / low then sit back & if I've calculated correctly the trade runs successfully, if not my stop is hit & I lose a small amount that I was prepared to lose crazy . At £1 pip I'm looking for 3-400 pips of movement over a few days?

Originally Posted By: Enforcer
If you use stops you will lose money, unless they are just trailing stops once you are in profit.


I'm not saying your wrong cool , but I would argue that stops are very important?
I would call your style of trading 'Gambling'? You jump in the trade on a 'hunch', when price falls you just sit back & wait days, weeks, months or even years on the hope that your trade comes back into the black!

I would say that you have been lucky so far & the FTSE has always risen back from your original level?
I know from experience & have lost alot of money on one trade from NOT using a stop? This was in 2010 when I had a trade running on the DOW, started a short trade at just over 10k, the DOW then rose for the next 12 months to over 12k, I was on a year contract that expired rolleyes because as you I was keeping my fingers crossed that my initial mistake would come good?

Nearly two years on the DOW is still over 12k & if I still had that trade running I would still be at a loss & keeping my fingers crossed that one day it would come good? I can guarantee as you say that give it another 6 months to a year that trade would have corrected itself?

Lesson learnt biglaugh I now always use 'STOPS' teacher ...

Quote:
Answer this question:

Do you possess the power, skill and knowledge so that 100% of your trades always make you money?
If you can honestly answer YES to that question then you don’t need to use a stop-loss. If you’re only 99% right on trades then I’m afraid you need to use stops, along with all the others that aren’t 100% successful.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308377
20/01/2012 10:46
20/01/2012 10:46

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jonnybgt1759
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jonnybgt1759
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Originally Posted By: Redline
jonnybgt1759 - Firstly I'm not a processional trader & only do as a hoby when I can, but I have been studying heavy for the past few years?
I do have a good friend who does it professionally to the point where he has now retired & lives from his day trading!


What a legend you friend is lol thats what i am trying to achieve one day smile

Originally Posted By: Redline

All indicators are 'lagging' indicators so you wont' find a magic one to look forward for you laugh ?
Using the MACD/ADX is working for you, so why not just stick with that & look for ways to tweak your setup?
I would say that you are working very hard for 2 pips?
I'm guessing your going in heavy at £10+ a pip?


Yeah thats about right 10 per pip. What i find is when you tweak your rules change and then your disipline goes out of the window.

I may try to work over the longer time frames. What signals to you use to go for bull or bear?

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308396
20/01/2012 11:22
20/01/2012 11:22

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Redline
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Redline
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I use the DTosc which isn't really available on any of the standard platforms?
But it's a mix of the Stoch & RSI, Using the Stoch or the MACD can give similar results but the DTosc seems more reliable?

One Book I would suggest reading is: -
High Probabilty Trading Stratagies


Also if your interested I can pop a Link to a blog that friend has started, its only in the early stages, but it will build with time!

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308430
20/01/2012 13:18
20/01/2012 13:18

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jonnybgt1759
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Originally Posted By: Redline
Also if your interested I can pop a Link to a blog that friend has started, its only in the early stages, but it will build with time!



Yeah that would be great!

Im thinking about changing strategy to daily charts its less time looking at graphs when your supposed to be working lol

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308457
20/01/2012 14:50
20/01/2012 14:50

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Jonny
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Jonny
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Originally Posted By: Enforcer

Basically, because the known facts about a stock are already built in to the price. Investment companies do all the spade work on this, so there is nothing left for us to do. So from that position, any future movement is more or less unpredictable.



So why do people say a stock is undervalued? I appreciate that you could say that they are incorrect/lucky in their assumption, but it appears to be true in some circumstances. Certain sectors will outperform targets in years to come.

Following on from my post above, I did some research into the Oil/drilling sector and specifically the Falklands, concentrating down the general consensus from both analysts and the layman investor. It appears to me that the sector as a whole is undervalued given the increase in the value of crude as well as other factors. The sector doesn't appear to have caught up with the facts?

I may be completely wrong but I have invested in the companies that are mining/drilling in the area. I appreciate that I think I have 'got in at the right time', but the sector appears to be strengthening considerably. Take Argos as an example- since I bought last week they have doubled in value for various reasons. The other companies have seen significant increases also. I effectively have a stake in much of the Falklands mining and so believe have reduced the risk of large losses (unless the Argentinians invade shocked ).

It looks like Rockhopper will now taken over or collaborate with a partner. This has caused prices to rise by 20% this week, but the writing was on the wall a few weeks before that?

Don't get me wrong, I don't think I'm the next Warren Buffet. However reading various sites, there is a lot of information to be collated and understood that appears to have not been taken into account by the professionals. I'm also surprised by the amount of market manipulation. Naive maybe?

As a side point, it appears that stocks can often be influenced massively by human nature confused

Let's see what happens. I might be eating my words laugh

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308476
20/01/2012 15:34
20/01/2012 15:34

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Redline
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Redline
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I agree that research can be a valuable asset when looking for potential stocks? If you have the time to spare it is a great way, but I prefer to update my charts for 20-30mins of an evening or early morning before the markets open, place the trades & sit back & relax or sigh if your stops hit laugh ...

Originally Posted By: jonnybgt1759
Im thinking about changing strategy to daily charts its less time looking at graphs when your supposed to be working lol


laugh Yes you wouldn't believe how much time I've wasted at work staring at 2,3,5,10 min charts waiting for the entry exit points! Now I just check position first thing and leave it to its own

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308518
20/01/2012 17:20
20/01/2012 17:20

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Enforcer
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I'll reply to you this once, and then I am out of here. I can't comment on your friend. There is no information to go on. He was lucky, perhaps (just as you say I have been). In order of your comments:

The luck involved for me has consisted solely in the tendency of the FTSE to rise over the years, and my willingness to wait for a selling point. No hunches in sight. If you go short you blow that one advantage at a stroke. You are betting on a market dropping when its tendency over the long term is to rise. You are inviting a permanent lock-in. If you buy into a 12-month contract and are therefore forced to buy at a particular time, then you are the one who is gambling. I didn't recommend going short.

Do I possess the knowledge ... etc? Obviously not, but the one or two which permanently die lose me less than I would have lost by repeatedly having 10% stop-losses triggered - usually unnecessarily, since the price usually recovers again. You don't put all your money into one stock at a time. Obviously.These stop-losses are almost a guarantee to lose money over the long term.

Why are stocks rated as 'oversold', or 'undervalued'? Because the investors consulted consider that they are worth more than the current price. If most investors agreed with that, the price would rise. To see how reliable these opinions are, you need to analyse their overall success rate.

Apart from all that, so you think that even though the huge investment companies have tried and tested every conceivable 'system', none of which has proven effective, they still regard a modest 20% p.a. as a respectable outcome, but you have thought up a better system which will strip them of their investments.

Good luck.


Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308617
20/01/2012 22:07
20/01/2012 22:07

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Redline
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Redline
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Originally Posted By: Enforcer

Apart from all that, so you think that even though the huge investment companies have tried and tested every conceivable 'system', none of which has proven effective, they still regard a modest 20% p.a. as a respectable outcome, but you have thought up a better system which will strip them of their investments.

Good luck.



I don't recall saying anything along the lines of 'Having thought up a better system'??
This was the whole point in starting the thread to gauge opinions from other forum members & in turn exchange views?

I can see that you are very fixed in your ways & happy to wait years for your investments to grow or return?
That suits you? but myself & many others would like our money to work harder!
Returns of 30%+ per year are easily achievable.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308633
20/01/2012 22:45
20/01/2012 22:45

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jonnybgt1759
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jonnybgt1759
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Enforcer - You are right in what you are saying if either the amount in the account is huge say 50k and you buy small amounts of contracts. It could be a year before you cash in but you would never lose.

In the real world traders tend to be looking for profit quicker and higher risk reward ratio so a stop loss is a must for any trader looking to make high reward per pound spent.


Redline - On your system do you look for oversold or overbaught on the ftse100 before looking at your trading stock to be overs, overb in essense to both be the same?

I always used to only trade indices ftse,dax and s&p and occasionaly Apple.

I now will be looking away from scalping and moving to the dailys with individual stocks what ones do you recomend in your experience?

Thanks.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308649
20/01/2012 23:44
20/01/2012 23:44

R
Redline
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Redline
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jonnybgt1759 - I'm looking at several methods, but basically Yes my trading plan is looking for the FTSE to be in the OB / OS zone, then similarly look at the constituents within the FTSE to find shares that match the OS / OB position of the FTSE, as after all it is these which drive the indices itself?

I don't have any specific favorites within the FTSE, but I just run a scan to find potential trades?
Although you do start to get a feel for a market if you trade often.

Similarly I also look at the dow, s&p, and forex pairs looking for dual time frame (weekly/Daily) bearish/bullish reversals.

Hope that makes sense?

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308661
21/01/2012 00:03
21/01/2012 00:03

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jonnybgt1759
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jonnybgt1759
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Originally Posted By: Redline
jonnybgt1759 - I'm looking at several methods, but basically Yes my trading plan is looking for the FTSE to be in the OB / OS zone, then similarly look at the constituents within the FTSE to find shares that match the OS / OB position of the FTSE, as after all it is these which drive the indices itself?

I don't have any specific favorites within the FTSE, but I just run a scan to find potential trades?
Although you do start to get a feel for a market if you trade often.

Similarly I also look at the dow, s&p, and forex pairs looking for dual time frame (weekly/Daily) bearish/bullish reversals.

Hope that makes sense?


Yeah im going to give that a go with my current indicators, they seem to work ok having backtested them with various stocks.

Do you plan to do this as your main source of income one day ?

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308679
21/01/2012 01:06
21/01/2012 01:06

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Enforcer
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Originally Posted By: jonnybgt1759
Enforcer - You are right in what you are saying if either the amount in the account is huge say 50k and you buy small amounts of contracts. It could be a year before you cash in but you would never lose.

In the real world traders tend to be looking for profit quicker and higher risk reward ratio so a stop loss is a must for any trader looking to make high reward per pound spent.



And also in the real world, most of them lose all their money. It would be nice if there were a system of trading that produced a reliable rate of return, but there isn't. If there had been, everyone would have been on it, and everyone would be making a profit, thus cancelling out the benefit of the system; there would be no losers to fund the winnings. Short term prices are unpredictable.

Let's say you have a system which indicates a sell at +10% and a stop at - 10%. Using a stop loss means that even disregarding trading fees you need to reach your sell-point more often than you trigger your stop. If the short-term price movements are unpredictable, how are you going to do that? No-one has found a reliable way.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308681
21/01/2012 01:15
21/01/2012 01:15

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Enforcer
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Originally Posted By: jonnybgt1759

Yeah im going to give that a go with my current indicators, they seem to work ok having backtested them with various stocks.


Over what period of time did you back-test them, and did you deduct the trading fees for every trade? Was the resultant profit then better than the FTSE's growth over the period?

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308691
21/01/2012 01:46
21/01/2012 01:46

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jonnybgt1759
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Originally Posted By: Enforcer

Over what period of time did you back-test them, and did you deduct the trading fees for every trade? Was the resultant profit then better than the FTSE's growth over the period?


Back tested over six months on daily seems good using macd/stoch trend then setting up the stop each day at high or low to hold down profit. I dont pay trading fees smile I use CFD's to trade with Intertrader with 1 pip costs.

The profit varied stock to stock. I have now included some bollinger bands to give a little extra support and resistance.

I am still unsure of the moving averages and how they play a part on the daily?

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308867
21/01/2012 20:19
21/01/2012 20:19

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Enforcer
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If you don't pay fees that would be a significant help.I was just interested in the nett overall percentage profit using your approach. That would mean across all stocks you traded over the period.

It is very easy to form unwarranted generalisations from selective results. To be honest with oneself, it is necessary to be coldly objective and see what overall profit a method produces over the long-term.

Just in case you too misread me as being 'fixed in my ways', maybe I should elaborate on my conclusions, after thirty years of trying to work out a winning formula.

1. Short term movements are completely unpredictable. There are articles (eg) on Wikipedia that discuss this at length. What happens tomorrow is unpredictable.

2. Therefore, initial stop-losses are triggered as often as not - guaranteeing that they are the wrong strategy

3. Time is your friend. Even though short-term movements are unpredictable, you can still make a profit if you are prepared to buy when the stock is in a trough (relative to MAs) and then WAIT until you are sufficiently in profit to sell. Sometimes this will be an hour, other times a year. You can't predict how long, because the prices are unpredictable, but eventually you will usually get your sell point.

So in short, the only way to profit from an unpredictable market is to have time on your side. Unlike your competing investors, have the patience to wait for the sell point. You will then be one of the winners, amidst a field of short-term losers. It's true. I can't put it any clearer than that.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308869
21/01/2012 20:25
21/01/2012 20:25

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BTW, using a bit of circumspect thinking here:

The internet is full of people offering trading systems. How many of those do you think are actually expecting you to benefit?

None: If they had a profitable system they would be in there full-time making money for themselves. They wouldn't be giving it to you.

So they are teaching you nothing. In fact, they are generally misleading you into losing money, so that they can gain from your loss. One key tool in their armoury is the 'stop-loss myth'.

No-one is obliged to agree with me, but I am certainly not fixed in my ways, and I have certainly analysed this entire subject to death. The closed-minded among us are those who are unwilling to see the reality I have just described.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308920
21/01/2012 22:16
21/01/2012 22:16

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jonnybgt1759
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Originally Posted By: Enforcer
BTW, using a bit of circumspect thinking here:

The internet is full of people offering trading systems. How many of those do you think are actually expecting you to benefit?

None: If they had a profitable system they would be in there full-time making money for themselves. They wouldn't be giving it to you.




I agree 100% that there are lots of people that are running the scams with their promise of huge profit.

Their is one guy however that i have learned most of but currently do not use his services as he trades american stocks only and hosts daily live radio station 'day trading radio' he has uploaded more than a thousand videos free to all via you tube on strategy. You can also become a member on his show for a small fee each month enabling you to see all his live trades you could also join free for a month with a small payment after intial setup you can cancel any time you like . The problem for me 2.30pm to to 9pm does not suite my life smile i wish there was a uk version.

Originally Posted By: Enforcer
Not paying fees



That is the way you should trade get a CFD account your fee is 1 pip to the broker rather than a £10 per trade deal?

I currently use Intertrader after searching through them all they are the best avoid plus 500 as they are the worst.


Redline - Do you know of day trader rockstar ie ( day trading radio ) if so what are your views?

Last edited by jonnybgt1759; 21/01/2012 22:21.
Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308941
21/01/2012 22:56
21/01/2012 22:56
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 33,563
Berlin
barnacle Offline
Club Member 18 - ex-Minister without Portfolio
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 33,563
Berlin
Quote:
You can also become a member on his show for a small fee


Fancy that!

Seek not advice from the rich; they have no desire to share it with you.


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Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308994
22/01/2012 04:23
22/01/2012 04:23

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Enforcer
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Quote:
That is the way you should trade get a CFD account your fee is 1 pip to the broker rather than a £10 per trade deal.



Now that really is gambling. Both the opening and closing times are specified in advance, so you have no predictive power and no leeway as to the timing. Why would you think that you are able to profit from this approach? Presumably you think that price movements from open to close are to some extent predictable. What predictive method do you use?

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1308996
22/01/2012 06:27
22/01/2012 06:27

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jonnybgt1759
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Originally Posted By: Enforcer

Now that really is gambling. Both the opening and closing times are specified in advance, so you have no predictive power and no leeway as to the timing. Why would you think that you are able to profit from this approach? Presumably you think that price movements from open to close are to some extent predictable. What predictive method do you use?


I dont see any difference in buying stocks via a broker and paying a fee for current price rather than paying a direct low marging fee? For your systen it would remove your initial trade fee really what is 1 pip on a daily setup?

Cfd also offers leverage in which stops become more important, But by the sounds of it you have a large enough account to deal with loss untill it goes in your favour then cash in when it goes your way?

What broker do you use?

At the end of the day i see this as a a potential future job.

To be honest im fed up of working for £ 30k per year and getting told its a good job! When in reality you pay a lot of tax national insurance etc. When you see theese idiots not working having several kids and milking the system walking away paying nothing and living life not far off yourself.

Then at the other end I see on a weekly basis people landing lucky some of which are total cowboys with setting up dummy buisness doing dodgy stuff raking it in!

The good honest guy like myself gets shafted the most in all aspects.

So thats why I have started looking into stocks to make more out of savings rather than the crap offered by your bailout banks!

Sorry for the rant lol

I use Macd/ADX for prediction and also trying stochastics . As i have said before i am now looking for daily trends im fed up of looking at small time charts all the time.

Last edited by jonnybgt1759; 22/01/2012 06:28.
Re: Trading & Investing [Re: barnacle] #1308999
22/01/2012 06:49
22/01/2012 06:49

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jonnybgt1759
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Originally Posted By: barnacle
Quote:
You can also become a member on his show for a small fee


Fancy that!

Seek not advice from the rich; they have no desire to share it with you.


You can register for free for a month trial with no obligation cancel at any time. You can view every trade he runs live. I would do it myslef as the show is really good along with good music. If your happy running in american time zone lol.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1309017
22/01/2012 10:38
22/01/2012 10:38

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Enforcer
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Quote:
Cfd also offers leverage in which stops become more important, But by the sounds of it you have a large enough account to deal with loss untill it goes in your favour then cash in when it goes your way?


No - you misunderstand. I don't have to deal with loss, because I don't have to cash anything in until it returns to profit. There is no leveraging, so I never get into debt situation that I cannot afford.

Johnny - I'm not trying to pour cold water on your aspirations (ooh, matron!) -

I am just trying to explain to you that what you are trying to do has been tried millions of times before, and usually ends up with a loss. If you are gearing up your investment with leveraging then you are much more likely to go broke before the millions pour in. How are you going to go broke with an initial stop-loss in place? Good question. You go broke with an initial stop-loss in place by having it triggered more often than you make your profit. It doesn't have to be more often in the long-term, because it only takes your nett returns to be negative a few times, especially with leveraging, for you to be out of the game.

I'll try to explain this again. CFD is worse than my approach because it fixes the times for the start and finish of the contract. Your profit is [Close Price - Opening Price], which fixes the prices you have to work with. My approach allows me to time my exit, so the main uncertainty for me is not whether I will take a profit, but when. CFD takes that one possibility away, and so turns a strategy into a straight gamble.

There are independent studies into this stuff - no charting strategy has been shown to work better than chance. In fact, even from my own experience, when I try to buy in at the bottom of a trough I usually get it wrong. The price continues to drop further for some time. If I had been CFDing I would have lost a great deal of money.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1309020
22/01/2012 10:43
22/01/2012 10:43
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 33,563
Berlin
barnacle Offline
Club Member 18 - ex-Minister without Portfolio
barnacle  Offline
Club Member 18 - ex-Minister without Portfolio
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 33,563
Berlin
Originally Posted By: jonnybgt1759

To be honest im fed up of working for £ 30k per year and getting told its a good job! When in reality you pay a lot of tax national insurance etc. When you see theese idiots not working having several kids and milking the system walking away paying nothing and living life not far off yourself.


Not that I want to discourage you - but this will not be as different from a paid salary (of the same net value) as you might imagine.

If you're living on nothing but dividends, then everything above your base allowance is taxable income at either 20 or 40% depending on how much you earn - from memory, first £7450 is tax free, then 20% for the bit up to about £42k, then 40% thereafter until you get to the 50% rate at, um, £150k or so.

You won't pay any NI, but you won't get any 'stamps' on your pension, either, so you may not get sufficient complete years on your NI to get full pension unless you've already got thirty years in. You won't qualify for any benefits, either, though they won't throw you out of hospital.

If you make yourself a limited company, you can pay yourself a salary up to £7450 which is tax free to you and is an expense to the company, so the company saves 20% of that, and then vote yourself the rest in dividends - but those dividends can only come from the profit of the company which is itself taxed at 20%. That's a little better for you, but you aren't likely to have significant expenses. If you expect to see more than about sixty thousand a year - I can't recall the exact number - then you must be VAT registered even if you're not selling anything. You still don't pay VAT.

The point is, on £30k a year income as opposed to £30 as a salary, there's not a huge difference, only a thousand or two, in your take-home.

NOTE I am not an accountant or a lawyer. You should consult one for the best advice.


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Re: Trading & Investing [Re: barnacle] #1309029
22/01/2012 11:53
22/01/2012 11:53

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Originally Posted By: barnacle


If you're living on nothing but dividends, then everything above your base allowance is taxable income at either 20 or 40% depending on how much you earn - from memory, first £7450 is tax free, then 20% for the bit up to about £42k, then 40% thereafter until you get to the 50% rate at, um, £150k or so.


Welcome to the world of 'Spread Betting' - Everything earned or lost laugh is Tax free?

Originally Posted By: jonnybgt1759
Do you plan to do this as your main source of income one day ?


That was/is on the back of my mind when I started 3 years ago, I've been investing on/off for many years, but it is mainly the last 3 where I have started to take control & move everything I had away from financial advisors!

Originally Posted By: Enforcer
I am just trying to explain to you that what you are trying to do has been tried millions of times before, and usually ends up with a loss.


The losses incurred I see as the same as paying for a course from professional investors?
Anyone (& I mean anyone) who enters the world of trading will lose money?
Granted if I had payed a few £k's for a course it would have been cheaper than teaching myself laugh .. but that would have been no fun!

Originally Posted By: Enforcer
Let's say you have a system which indicates a sell at +10% and a stop at - 10%. Using a stop loss means that even disregarding trading fees you need to reach your sell-point more often than you trigger your stop. If the short-term price movements are unpredictable, how are you going to do that? No-one has found a reliable way


You are quoting a 1:1 Risk/Ratio? It is not often I enter with this ratio, more often than not I'll be looking for 1:2 or 1:3 so a 20 pip stop for a 60 pip gain?

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1309039
22/01/2012 12:46
22/01/2012 12:46

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jonnybgt1759
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jonnybgt1759
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Redline - Do you CFD or Spread or buy via broker with a fee?

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1309060
22/01/2012 14:54
22/01/2012 14:54

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Redline
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Sb for forex & indicies, then selftrade for etf's & shares with £10 flat fee.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1309069
22/01/2012 15:38
22/01/2012 15:38

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Enforcer
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Enforcer
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Originally Posted By: Redline

You are quoting a 1:1 Risk/Ratio? It is not often I enter with this ratio, more often than not I'll be looking for 1:2 or 1:3 so a 20 pip stop for a 60 pip gain?



You just aren't getting it! Do you think a 2:1 gain is as likely as a 1:1 gain? It's considerably less than half of that, so if you aim for a 2:1 or 3:1 gain you will get it less than half or a third of the time.

There's no free money. The odds are against you all the way.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1310895
27/01/2012 18:41
27/01/2012 18:41

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jonnybgt1759
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I changed to daily and hourly charts. All I can say is wow so much easier and made good money this week nearly a months pay smile with the forex XAUD/USD.

Last edited by jonnybgt1759; 27/01/2012 18:46.
Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1311680
29/01/2012 23:19
29/01/2012 23:19

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jonnybgt1759
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Just went short on forex EUR/USD. daily and hourly both looking oversold. Lets see what i can do this week.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1311762
30/01/2012 07:17
30/01/2012 07:17

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Do you mean 'overbought'?

And this one?

click to enlarge

Best of luck!

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1311769
30/01/2012 08:33
30/01/2012 08:33

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jonnybgt1759
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yeah sorry mate I was tired last nite should have said over bought as why go short over sold lol. I have just woke up and to find its moved great. I took the price of 1.32215 its now down to 1.31500 i have locked in a stop of good profit but im going to let it run more.

Last edited by jonnybgt1759; 30/01/2012 09:08.
Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1311772
30/01/2012 08:46
30/01/2012 08:46

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Putting in a stop once you are in profit is probably a good plan. Out of interest, how do you determine that something is overbought?

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1311776
30/01/2012 09:18
30/01/2012 09:18

J
jonnybgt1759
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jonnybgt1759
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Originally Posted By: Enforcer
Putting in a stop once you are in profit is probably a good plan. Out of interest, how do you determine that something is overbought?


I am using trading indicators at the moment across the daily and hourly time frames a combination of Stochastic, MACD with my custom settings and RSI. The stochastic if above 80 is considered oversold and below 20 overbought. RSI is similar but 70-30 . The Macd is the link in between with showing a slowdown of a trend. Combined into this is a bollinger band if the price is against this and all other are showing overbought then its a High probability setup. I was exactly the same tech before with smallwer time frames but it involves hours of watching charts to scalp points at a time. My new system i spotted this last nite and a soon as forex opened i had to give it a go.

So if all or 4 out 5 of these are giving you the green light to go its a higher possibilty than just a gamble.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1311811
30/01/2012 12:05
30/01/2012 12:05

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Redline
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Originally Posted By: jonnybgt1759
I changed to daily and hourly charts. All I can say is wow so much easier and made good money this week nearly a months pay smile with the forex XAUD/USD.


Glad to hear your new trading strategy is paying off!

I would just edge a word of caution to be careful, I'm guessing that you are still using £10/point, just make sure you have a trading plan & stick to it!!

As it's just as easy to lose a months pay just as quick!

Don't over trade, if you have a good week, have a week off to enjoy your profits wink ...

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1311866
30/01/2012 13:39
30/01/2012 13:39

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jonnybgt1759
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jonnybgt1759
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Originally Posted By: Redline

I would just edge a word of caution to be careful, I'm guessing that you are still using £10/point, just make sure you have a trading plan & stick to it!!

As it's just as easy to lose a months pay just as quick!

Don't over trade, if you have a good week, have a week off to enjoy your profits wink ...


I have also now decided to put a % of profit in hold and build, back up.

If it wasnt for this thread i would still be doing the low time frames. So thank you Redline

Last edited by jonnybgt1759; 30/01/2012 13:39.
Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1312493
31/01/2012 23:22
31/01/2012 23:22

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jonnybgt1759
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jonnybgt1759
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Redline - Im really starting to like the forex markets vs general stocks.

I know you are not a pro but you have more experiance than me. What are the pro's con's forex vs stocks?

For example do the forex ever gap down/up? as they technically dont close? until the weekend?

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1312575
01/02/2012 10:03
01/02/2012 10:03

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Redline
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Originally Posted By: jonnybgt1759
Redline - Im really starting to like the forex markets vs general stocks.

I know you are not a pro but you have more experiance than me. What are the pro's con's forex vs stocks?

For example do the forex ever gap down/up? as they technically dont close? until the weekend?


Yes the Forex markets can be very profitable, but they are very volatile in comparison, and as you say they move 24/7!
Even though they run 24/7 they will still gap? So be careful with your stops, it's never happened to me yet!

I find them handy as I can still trade them of an evening, but by about 8pm they become stagnant.

Do be careful as trades then run constantly through the night!! I've had a few sleepless nights in the past! But that was in the early days when I was trading too near the bone!

Your indicators are NOT always 100%, divergence can appear, your indicator might have signs of a bear market, but the price will still be bullish!

I seem to have reverted this week & playing the Forex with a 30 Stop/5 Limit, positive results, but hard work laugh ..

I did make one big mistake on the GBP/CZK!
Minimum stop is 150, placed trade & it started around -60 shocked .. I was only trading £1/pip (Should of looked at the min - 10p), but as I thought few minutes later I took the hit at £150 loss crazy .. It could of been worse and Trading £10/pip laugh ...

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1313802
05/02/2012 05:09
05/02/2012 05:09

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jonnybgt1759
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I didnt do to well this week with holding currency that i knew was going down.

didnt put normal stop in place as using 2 measures bollinger band holding overnight cost £100 fees frown per night took it off at £40 profit but could have had £600 if i set limit which i never did but it occured 5am our time. sily mistake when its not going to plan (note to self re adjust) limit factor. AUD/USD will look on sunday before next position before open. Whats your oppinion enforcer/redline?

Also enforcer fo you use any tech anlysis in your trading as it sounds as if you only sell/buy when average price is high/low during long period?

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1314134
06/02/2012 12:35
06/02/2012 12:35

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Redline
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Originally Posted By: jonnybgt1759
I didnt do to well this week with holding currency that i knew was going down.

didnt put normal stop in place as using 2 measures bollinger band holding overnight cost £100 fees frown per night took it off at £40 profit but could have had £600 if i set limit which i never did but it occured 5am our time. sily mistake when its not going to plan (note to self re adjust) limit factor. AUD/USD will look on sunday before next position before open. Whats your oppinion enforcer/redline?

Also enforcer fo you use any tech anlysis in your trading as it sounds as if you only sell/buy when average price is high/low during long period?


Yes your learning? Always have your stops & Limits in place?
It's important to have a trading plan & stick to it? Otherwise you will fall foul to the markets!

What platform are you using which is costing you £100 fees??

At least you have still come out in profit! Which is still good what ever way you look at it laugh

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1314138
06/02/2012 12:48
06/02/2012 12:48

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jonnybgt1759
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Originally Posted By: Redline

Yes your learning? Always have your stops & Limits in place?
It's important to have a trading plan & stick to it? Otherwise you will fall foul to the markets!

What platform are you using which is costing you £100 fees??

At least you have still come out in profit! Which is still good what ever way you look at it laugh



Its my understanding that any forex platform will charge you interest if held after 5pm US time on depending on what currecny pair etc but it can go in your favour also with interest given to. you depending whether you are long or short.

I use intertrader, they offer the best all round package for me at the moment low spreads on everything There basic platform charts are also very good. Not quite as good as the more advanced ie metatrader4 but still very usable with multi setting and measures. They also can give you the metatrader4 if you wanted it.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1334737
15/04/2012 05:37
15/04/2012 05:37

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jonnybgt1759
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How are you guys getting on?

I have done various systems with a very profitable £100 per pip move taking 2 pip on the 1 min chart smile 31 trades in a row profitable!

Then I got done and lost aprox 80% of my profit frown

Due to being to busy with work not setting a reasnable stop loss frown

I now have new improved system using 4 hour charts with lower risk/reward ratio running @ £5 per pip with max stop 100 pips, max limit of 50 pips.

It seems to be far less effort as some days i get overloaded with complex work issues.

So I now only trade AUD/USD 4 hour base using MACD di napoli settings, RSI, Willaims R & standard stochastic incorperated into all this i have 2 seperate devations of bollinger bands set up as supp or res.

Firstly im looking for support or resistsance then oversold or overbought on the RSI & stochastic Then the macd confirms the trend change and enter the trade. The only loss so far is holding overnight on a 'short' basis

I added williams R as it seems to indiacte quicker trend change.

Have a look at 4 hour chart against the currnecy pair back test it and you will see it works!

Use 15 min chart as entry point via same technique.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1334829
15/04/2012 15:10
15/04/2012 15:10

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My Tesco holding has gone into profit twice over the past few weeks, but dipped down again. Still waiting for a respectable margin.

Re: Trading & Investing [Re: ] #1336805
21/04/2012 21:58
21/04/2012 21:58

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Originally Posted By: Enforcer
My Tesco holding has gone into profit twice over the past few weeks, but dipped down again. Still waiting for a respectable margin.


and getting my dividend this coming Wednesday! smile

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